3-4-2013

Good job today in identifying that today was a range day pretty quickly.  Very good learning day.  Mack went over the trades and explained them very well in how to identify the spots and where to trade.  After reviewing his video I see where I went wrong in my thinking and where to look for trades.  I have shown a little progress b/c after my first failed trade I realized that it was probably going to be a range day.  2 of the 3 trades I missed will come in time as I am able to recognize price action and the setups with more ease.  I see exactly what he was talking about.  He reiterated again that this takes time to learn and most people give up before they give themselves a chance to be successful.  He's probably the most honest guy I've ever met who teaches.  He said he trades first and that is where he makes his money.  He just does these Youtube videos b/c he likes to and he has no desire to do a trading room anytime soon.

Trade 1:   2nd entry long off of lower channel.  There was not a good signal bar.  I think I got over anxious to take this trade when I saw it pull back to my perceived lower channel line.  I got caught in the long trap side but luckily I recognized this when the bar after my entry bar did nothing.  I was able to get out for a one tick loss so I'm happy about that.  Bad trade to enter but good exit.

Trade 2:  2nd entry short off of resistance.

Trade 3:  2nd entry short off of false breakout.  Made matching highs then my entry bar created a long trap and closed on its low.  Got out at a great exit a tick or two before the support level.  Good trade.

Trade 4:  2nd entry short off of resistance level.  I hesitated taking this because price came up off of a failed breakout short and when it does this then price seems to break through the resistance.  I got caught in the short trap for my entry bar.  A horrible trade all the way around.  I should have gotten out with a 1 tick loss but I held on thinking it was going back down and got destroyed.  Just a terrible trade all around.

Missed Trades:

1.  Failed 2nd entry short off of support.

2.  Failed 2nd entry long off of resistance.  This was a better point to enter than where I entered according to Mack.

3.  Price came off a failed breakout short and came back to test support and then skyrocketed up.  The bias is up since price came up into the range so there is a very good chance that price was going back up to at least test resistance.  The failed breakout short signals price is going back up.

3-1-2013

Today was much better.  In the two bad trades I did take I was able to recognize that price was doing what it should have so I was able to get out at break even (BE).  Your stop goes two ticks below/above your signal bar.  I need to draw all trend lines that create a channel even if they are steep b/c I missed out on a trade by not drawing a steep trend line.  Just b/c they are steep does not mean they will not work.  It just means they are not going to last for too long with a steep angle.

Mack says to keep practicing and eventually it will come to you.  It may take months and sometime even years but eventually you will get it.  Do not go live until you are sure and know you are profitable.  His system works and he shows why and how it works everyday.  Follow his price action rules and eventually you will be a profitable trader.  Use his stop techniques and place your stops how he tells you to which is 2 ticks above/below the signal bar then move to BE once your 1st target of 1 point is hit.  Sometimes you will need to get out early when price does not move the way you expect it to.  You will be able to recognize this instances through practicing and experience.

Trade 1:  Failed 2nd entry long.  I missed the entry off of the top of the trend channel b/c it wasn't a channel yet.  After price came down below the EMA I waited for a 2nd entry long since price seemed to be in a channel and took the short one tick below it.  I got out almost at the bottom by dumb luck. I had moved my 2nd exit down to the bottom of the page and price came and took it out before I could move it any lower.  I would have moved the short to the bottom of the channel so I just got lucky for almost maximum profit here. Because more than likely I would have gotten a point on the 2nd contract rather than 3.75.

Trade 2:  2nd entry long.  I had drawn the support line using the top as the trend and that is where price perfectly reversed for a 2nd entry long.  I had my target 2 ticks below the high of the day.

Trade 3:  2nd entry long.

Trade 4:  Signal bar entry off of support line.  This isn't a trade I take right now so I'm lucky to recognize that I needed to get out at BE when price came back down before going up to BE enabling me to get out.  It would have been a good short b/c of the double top off of the EMA.

Trade 5:  Signal bar short.  I got out at break even after price made a higher high.

Missed Trades:

1.  2nd entry short.  It wasn't off the trend line b/c I hadn't drawn one yet.  I didn't take it b/c price had closed above the EMA for 2 bars.

2.  2nd entry long.  I didn't take it b/c I had not drawn the long trend line when I should have even though it would have been with a steep angle.  If I had then I would have been able to take this.

3.  Top of the measured move, top of the channel line and signal bar short.

2-28-2013

(After reviewing Mack's video I am not getting the same feed as Mack so many of my bars are different than his which affects some of my trades)

The theme of today for me is do not try to create channels.  If there isn't a clear channel then the market is probably in a range.  I took many losing trades due to trying to force price into a channel when one wasn't there since most of today was a range day.  Days like today are the reason why I am nowhere near ready to go live.  I got destroyed.  I feel the frustration inside of me but I did not make any trades based purely off of the negative emotions from a previous losing trades.  All of my trades were reasoned out and I followed the trades I take except for one at the end which I still felt was okay but maybe after watching Mack's video it isn't.  We'll see.  I could not spot the trend or where the high and low of the range were.  I did recognize that it was a range day at about 10:00am but it was a little late but at least I recognized it so that is a start. After watching Mack's recap I added in the blue range arrows b/c I had forgotten about that when price breaks out of a range it usually goes as high/low as the previous range which is did.  I may come back and redo this day at a later date in the future to see how much I have improved since then.

The best entries are at the far edges of the range.  After a strong trending day the next day can be a range day of consolidation.  That is what today was.

Trade 1:  2nd entry short off of the overnight high with a good signal bar.  I'm good with this trade.  It seemed to have all of the makings of a good trade but made one last push up before turning down.

Trade 2:  2nd entry long off of lower trend channel.  Not sure about this trade.  It may not have been in a trend channel and I was trying to force one.  I was able to get the scalp but looking back I think I was trying to find a channel too hard.

Trade 3:  2 legged pullback long.  Not sure about this trade either.  It worked out for a scalp but I don't think it was a good trade b/c it wasn't off S/R or in a channel.

Trade 3:  2nd entry pullback long.  Again I was looking to hard to make a channel and it was just a short trap off of the EMA that got me good.

Trade 4:  Failed 2nd entry long off of the EMA.  After my long failed it looked like we were in a channel going towards the low of the day.

Trade 5:  2nd entry short.  Again I was looking too hard to make a channel.  There is not a signal bar and price had closed 3 bars above my "fake" channel.  Bad trade.

Trade 6:  Failed 2nd entry long.  I thought price was heading back down to the lows of the day but I forgot the key concept in failed 2nd entries.  Price cannot be closing above the EMA when I am looking for 2nd entry shorts.  Price has to be hitting off of the top of the EMA and only closing below it.  This was another losing trade due to me looking for a trade out of nothing.  If I had remembered about the EMA and where price was closing then I would not have taken the trade.

Trade 7:  Naked support trade.  I thought price would bounce off of the resistance turned support.  It wasn't a 2nd entry long or anything.  Just took it blindly.  Should just have marked this as a trade I considered to take since these types of trades are not in my rules.

Missed Trades:

1.  Mack has it as a 2nd entry long but my charts say a 3rd entry long with a signal bar.

2.  Mack has it as a 2nd entry long with a good signal bar off of support.

3.  Matching highs off of the resistance level.  I missed this b/c I had just entered too early b/c I thought price was in a channel and it was a losing trade.  I didn't recognize that price was in a range and not in a channel.

4.  Price was closing above the EMA and creating higher lows.

5.  Price broke out of the range and closed a couple bars above it.  The resistance had turned into support.

6.  Price had reached the top of the range and created a great signal bar at the top of the channel.

2-27-2013

Back after having to take about 10 days off due to travel with business outside of the country.  I wanted to do some reviews but time didn't allow for it.  Today I was hesitant to pull the trigger and let my runners run which would have been a great day if I did.  I think rust from taking almost 10 days off is a factor to this.  Where I am at in my learning curve it is going to take a couple of reviews before I'm back to where I was before I had to travel.  I did well by only taking trades in the direction of the trend.  My fear was that I would be caught in a big pullback by going long.  I expected a pullback but one never happened.  That is why I have to leave on runners when the market is in a trend b/c I could have made 20+ points only trading 2 contracts.

When bars are small and look choppy but are going in one direction then that is a very strong trend.  It fools everyone b/c they see the small and choppy bars but they are steadily going in one direction and is a very strong trend.  I need to draw the support and resistance bars, especially on a trend day to help show me where price is bouncing off of.

Every time price pulls back to the trend line you want to look for your signal bar.  They are high probability setups that rarely fail.  You are looking for a trend bar in your direction.  You have to trust the pattern and setups and go with them.

Trade 1:  2nd entry long from the EMA and a 2 legged pullback to the EMA.  Took the 2nd trade out at 1.50 points b/c it was close to the upper trend line.  LOL.  If I hadn't then it would have been a runner for 17+ points.  That is the debate I have to do more of.  To either take the profit at the top of the channel or to hold it in case of instances like this b/c it usually seems price comes back to take out my BE stop most of the time.  But I guess that the one time it doesn't I would have made 17 points on one contract.

Trade 2:  2nd entry long off of the EMA.  I didn't like the setup bar as it had almost 6 overlappoing bars previously so I got out with 1 tick profit.  Looks like I should have stayed in.

Trade 3:  2nd entry long off of bottom trend line.  Might be a first entry depending on if my feed gave me a false 1st entry near the top of the trend line.

Trade 4:  This is either a 2nd entry long if the 1st entry is a false signal off of the top of the trend line.  Either way it is a double bottom with a great signal bar entry off of the bottom trend line.  Looks like now price might be in a mini-range during the lunch hours.

Missed Trades:

1.  2nd entry long off of the bottom trend line.  In my mind I thought price was setting it up for a failed 2nd entry long which is why I didn't take it.  My charts did not show a good signal bar but price was coming off of the bottom of the trend channel in an uptrend so I should have taken it.  The next bar was a short trap.

2-26-2013

I thought I did pretty well after I watched Mack's recap.  I still made at least one really bad trade by a bad trend line I drew.  I need to fine an NT indicator that shows the days high/low.  It won't be useful everyday but for a day like today it would have been perfect.  It is best to get in when there is a trap or coming off of a high/low. 

What Mack always looks for his entries to come on the trend lines or support and resistance.  He also says you need a reversal bar of some kind.  A reversal bar has a big stem and closes near the high of the bar.

Trade 1:  2nd entry long off of lower trend channel

Trade 2:  2nd entry long and two legged pull back off of EMA.

Trade 3:  Failed 2nd entry long.  Notice how the price never closed above the EMA.  This seems to be crucial for these trades to have success.  Price cannot close on the opposite of the EMA for these types of failed 2nd entries to work. 

Trade 4:  2nd entry short off of the upper trend channel.  I also thought it was a big two legged pullback but in retrospect I don't think it is.

Trade 5:  2nd entry short off of upper trend channel.

Trade 6:  1st entry short off of EMA.  I think at the time I thought it was a 2nd entry short, no wonder it failed.

Trade 7:  2nd entry short off of upper trend channel.  This was the 2nd entry short.  I should not have taken the trade before this but I made a mistake and thought trade 6  was a 2nd entry short.

Trade 8:  2nd entry short.  I drew a new trend line.  I have never drawn another trend line right after it has broken the old one.  I think I got some of Al Brooks teachings confused with Macks.  Because of this I took the 2nd entry short.  If I had not had drawn that trend line like I never have before then I would not have taken this trade.  This was the horrible trade I was referring to earlier.

Trade 9:  2 legged pullback to the EMA with a short trap.  This is the trade I am most proud of.  Not because it was the big winner for the day but because I recognized it right after my short was stopped out.  I deciphered that since my short was just stopped out that the down trend was over and I needed to go long.  I saw that price had made a two legged pullback to the EMA so I got in one tick above the short trap off of the EMA.  I got out a couple of ticks above the previous swing high.  I could have held on for another two points so I'll have to do my exits better.

Missed Trades:

1.  Failed breakout short.  Not sure if I saw this at the time.

2.  2nd entry long.  At the time the channel had not been established so this is too advanced of a trade for me.

3.  I didn't mark it but it is at 12:26.  It is a 2nd entry long with a great reversal bar that is also a failed break out lower.  The reversal bar is the key here.  I need to remember to always look for those bars.

2-25-2013

I've been watching the Al Brooks video series and one thing that stuck out to me was always trade the way the institutions are trading.  When you see big moves then get in on them.  Reverse your position if you see a big move going against you to join in on the move.  The institutions move the market and all you can do is hop along for the ride.  I was doing more of the failed 2nd entries coming off of support/resistance which seemed to work out really well today.  I think those work best in a channel when coming off one of the channel areas.  I'm really going to start focusing on those b/c it seems that is where my big runners come from more so than the 2nd entry trades.

Trade 1:  2nd (3rd) entry long off of the EMA.

Trade 2:  2nd (3rd) entry long off of the lower trend channel after I missed the first trade

Trade 3:  Retest of support turned resistance.  What I thought it was at the time was a failed 2nd entry long so I took the short thinking price was headed to the lower channel.

Trade 4:  2nd entry failed short.  I went long and should have dropped my order one tick above the lows.  I would have gotten filled and had a 3+ point runner.  It is okay to miss a trade to try and get a better entry.  If I had done this a 3 point loss would have been a 4+ point winner.  I did call that it was headed higher after the failed 2nd entry short.

Trade 5:  2nd entry long.  This is just a horrible trade.  No two ways around it.  Price was coming off the upper trend channel, no reason to take this trade.  For some reason I convinced myself that price was going up out of the channel.

Trade 6:  Failed 2nd entry long off of upper trend channel.

Trade 7:  Failed 2nd entry long off of upper trend channel.  I figured price was headed down again at  least to the lows of the day so after price broke the failed 2nd entry long I hopped on board.

Trade 8:  Failed 2nd entry long off of EMA.  Figured price was headed to the lower channel band which it ended up doing.

Trade 9:   2nd entry long off of EMA.  Figured price was headed to the upper trend channel.

Trade 10:  2nd entry long.  Had a double bottom and figured I was only risking two points if I was filled to win 3+.

Trade 11:  Failed 2nd entry short.  Had a nice short trap with a 2nd entry short signal I thought could trap a lot of shorts.  Not sure if this is a good trade.  Do not think it is even though it worked out.

Missed Trades:

1.  2nd entry long off of 2nd test of support with a double bottom.

2.  2nd entry short with failed breakout.  Saw it at the time and should have taken it.  Talked myself out b/c when I saw it break through resistance I though it may be going up.  These are trades you have to take b/c you were risking 1.75 to get 3+ on your runner since support was 3+ points away.

3.  2nd entry long off of lower trend channel

4.  2nd entry short off of upper trend channel

5.  Failed 2nd entry long off of upper trend channel.  This is a beautiful trade to take EVERYTIME!  This is where the majority of your runners come from.  Failed 2nd entries at a upper/lower channel area.

6.  2nd entry short off of upper trend channel.  No reason to not take this and I saw it at the time but I talked myself out of it b/c for some reason I thought price was headed higher.  I should take this every time b/c more than likely price is at least retracing to test the low or get close to it before turning higher.

7.  2nd entry long.  Pretty aggressive trade so no problem not taking it.

8.  Failed 2nd entry long off of upper trend channel.  Beautiful trade but I didn't run the sim this far.  It would have been another great runner.

2-5-2013

This is why I am not ready for the advanced trades he recommends taking.  I tried 2 of them which of course ended up being losing trades b/c I misread the charts.  I'm not going to take out the measure move against the trend trade from the list of trades I take.  I am not ready for it until I can read price action better.

Trade 1:  2nd entry long off of lower trend channel.  If I had stuck to my plan and left my stop at 2 ticks below the signal bar then I would have at least made the 1 point scalp.

Trade 2:  2nd entry long off of the EMA.

Trade 3:  This was a made up trade I did which of course ended up being a loser.  Every time I do one of these trades it is a loser so quit making trades up and stick to your plan.

Trade 4&5:  Both of these trades I'm not taking anymore until I can read price action better.  I thought they were an overshoot of the measured move up and at the top of the upper trend line.  I thought I could short them when really I couldn't b/c they were not far enough away from the EMA.  Horrible trades b/c I struggle to read price action so I am not ready to take these trades.

Trade 6:  2nd entry long off the EMA.