Saturday, March 16, 2013
3-14-2013
When a trend line breaks you are still looking to take trades in the direction of the trend line until there is a retest to the previous highs or lows. After a trend line break you are still looking for with trend entries until you get a retest. Usually it will be a couple of legs down to a new low before you get a correction.
The good trades are at the extremes and that is usually around the trend line channel lines, EMA, support and resistance.
Good job recognizing when price turned into a range and drawing the correct support and resistance level. You know you should have taken the long trade at 9:20. You saw it but couldn't pull the trigger b/c you were afraid price was going back to the daily lows. Even if it did you probably still could have bounced off the support at least for a scalp before price went down to the lows. This didn't even happen so your fears were not realized.
It seems like a good rule of thumb for you is to take a trade at a support/resistance level when you know it is a good trade but you are too scared to take it. It seems that your fears keep you out of the trade so that should be a signal that it is a good trade to take. I'm getting better but it is taking time to get over to take trades at support/resistance levels when prices are going hard towards them.
1. 2nd entry long with a double bottom off the lower trend channel. I thought at the time that it was the first break of the blue trend channel and that it was going to make at least one more high before going into a downtrend or a range. Good trade.
2. 2nd entry short off of resistance. I should have waited until price made a false breakout close above the previous high at the resistance level. Good trade in concept but I missed the final piece of the puzzle which was to wait for the false breakout to enter.
3. Failed breakout long at resistance level. This is where I entered correctly. Great trade. I see this pattern over and over again. Price does a false breakout one direction only to reverse and go back to the previous support/resistance level. I thought price was going to go back to the previous support level but it looks like it is making a higher low and may have been starting an upwards trend channel.
Missed trades:
1. Signal bar 2 legged pullback entry off of EMA. Awesome signal bar off of the EMA. I called it at the time but didn't take it when I obviously should have.
2. 2nd entry long off of support level. These are the trades I am focusing on taking. This one type of trade is hard to take b/c price comes rocketing down to the support level and I am afraid the support level isn't going to hold. I have to get over this fear b/c I see this trade being successful over and over again. This is where I want to trade, at the extremes (support and resistance levels).
3. 2 legged pullback with a great signal bar. I tried to get in but I was running the replayer too fast and price moved up too quickly before I could get in. I felt that price was going back up to the resistance level. Good job spotting it but do not run the replayer so fast.
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