Saturday, March 16, 2013

3-14-2013



When a trend line breaks you are still looking to take trades in the direction of the trend line until there is a retest to the previous highs or lows.  After a trend line break you are still looking for with trend entries until you get a retest.  Usually it will be a couple of legs down to a new low before you get a correction.  

The good trades are at the extremes and that is usually around the trend line channel lines, EMA, support and resistance.

Good job recognizing when price turned into a range and drawing the correct support and resistance level.  You know you should have taken the long trade at 9:20.  You saw it but couldn't pull the trigger b/c you were afraid price was going back to the daily lows.  Even if it did you probably still could have bounced off the support at least for a scalp before price went down to the lows.  This didn't even happen so your fears were not realized.

It seems like a good rule of thumb for you is to take a trade at a support/resistance level when you know it is a good trade but you are too scared to take it.  It seems that your fears keep you out of the trade so that should be a signal that it is a good trade to take.  I'm getting better but it is taking time to get over to take trades at support/resistance levels when prices are going hard towards them.

1.  2nd entry long with a double bottom off the lower trend channel.  I thought at the time that it was the first break of the blue trend channel and that it was going to make at least one more high before going into a downtrend or a range.  Good trade.

2.  2nd entry short off of resistance.  I should have waited until price made a false breakout close above the previous high at the resistance level.  Good trade in concept but I missed the final piece of the puzzle which was to wait for the false breakout to enter.

3.  Failed breakout long at resistance level.  This is where I entered correctly.  Great trade.  I see this pattern over and over again.  Price does a false breakout one direction only to reverse and go back to the previous support/resistance level.  I thought price was going to go back to the previous support level but it looks like it is making a higher low and may have been starting an upwards trend channel.

Missed trades:

1.  Signal bar 2 legged pullback entry off of EMA.  Awesome signal bar off of the EMA.  I called it at the time but didn't take it when I obviously should have.

2.  2nd entry long off of support level.  These are the trades I am focusing on taking.  This one type of trade is hard to take b/c price comes rocketing down to the support level and I am afraid the support level isn't going to hold.  I have to get over this fear b/c I see this trade being successful over and over again.  This is where I want to trade, at the extremes (support and resistance levels).

3.  2 legged pullback with a great signal bar.  I tried to get in but I was running the replayer too fast and price moved up too quickly before I could get in.  I felt that price was going back up to the resistance level.  Good job spotting it but do not run the replayer so fast.


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