10-1-2012

My Notes:

Again, not too many trades b/c there are just so many times where I am unsure about which way price is headed.  I can feel the confusion and can make a case for price heading either direction.  The trades I did take I felt confident I had read the price action correctly.

I recognized a couple of trades I should have taken but was not confident in my views yet to pull the trigger.
My blue trend line on the downtrend was a tad to high.  Should have been lower.

On the yellow lines I draw look for price to break it and then go back and test the other side of it before reversing.  These really help so draw these.

Mack's Notes:

Generally when you get a news spike, price will come back and fill the gap or the big bars created by the news gap.

My Trades:

1.  2nd entry long and a double bottom off the EMA.  With my 2nd contract I should have exited when I saw the top of the trend channel form but I got greedy and thought price was going to rocket up to the huge measured move.

2.  2 legged move and 2nd entry long.  Price moved so fast I could not move my 2nd contract up one more point where the end of the measured move was.  That is where I would have gotten out.

3.  2 legged pullback and 2nd entry long.  Price had broken out of the yellow line and I looked for a  2 legged move down to test the lows before turning back up.  That is exactly what it did.  Now for the 2nd contract I thought it was going to go to the 2nd measured move but obviously it did not.  Not sure how to handle the target for that scenario.

Missed Trades:

1.  2nd entry long counting off the lows.  Price also broke the yellow line and made a 2 legged move down before retracing back up.

2.  2 legged pullback and 2nd entry short.  My trend line was too high, the correct trend line was  hitting the price.  I saw this trade and should have taken it.

3.  2 legged pullback to the EMA and a 2nd Entry short.  I saw this and should have taken it b/c of how nice the setup was and how I expected price to go down and at least test the previous lows before going up.  It was also the end of a measured move.

4.  He had 2 tests of the trend line but I had drawn mine too high so I didn't see it.  I should have also have been looking for the 2nd measured move down from the one that started at around 11:48.    So that is another reason why I should have taken this trade but I didn't even think about it.