4-16-2013

My Notes:

Still focusing on taking trades that are the 2nd part of a measured move.  I would prefer the pull back to be a 2 legged move but if it is in a strong trend then I'll take a 1st entry as long as it is off the EMA.  I am going to try to stay away when price is in a range unless it gives me a clear two legged move to the support/resistance area.

Whenever price makes a 2 legged measured move to a new high look for a 2 legged move down as a correction before price moves up again.

It's okay that I'm getting a bunch of losing trades right now b/c I am working on the measured moves.  I'm seeing where I am messing up with them.  When I draw them on the right trends then it is very easy to see where price is going to turn.  It is very obvious when I get them drawn on the wrong moves b/c price moves against my trades.  Like where I drew the black arrows begginning around 9:12.  Those were the correct ones I saw after the fact and I had counted the 2nd black measured move arrow as a 1st leg move when really it was a 2nd.

After finishing today I'm not sure if I've had a breakthrough or if I am trading recklessly.  I've been really focusing on the 2 legged measured move and that is how I took all of my trades today.  You can tell when I messed up counting the legs correctly but when I did see it correctly my trades were doing great.  I actually ended up today and felt confident in every single one of the trades I took.  When the ones didn't work I could see pretty quickly that I had messed up and was on the wrong leg to count.  Or maybe the market just moved very well today and I was lucky.  I'll find out very soon in my review sessions.  This is the most confident in my trades I have felt since I have been doing this and it feels very refreshing after about 2 months of frustration.

I think a good rule of thumb is if a trade does not workout then I have labeled or counted the measured moves incorrectly and I need to redo them before I take another trade.  Do not trade off off of the measured moves of a trade that was previously a losing trade.

Mack's Notes:

It is important that you find the correct trend lines.  Generally your major trend lines are going to come from the first couple of swing highs or swing lows.

The trades off of the trend lines setup the best trades.

A valid trend line should hold the majority of your prices.

Your big moves come off of the sides of the major channel lines.  Those are your key entry points.

My Trades:

1.  2 legged pullback to the EMA and 2nd entry long.  Was also close to the trend line.

2.  Though price was in a channel and would bounce back up.

3.  2nd entry long.  Price made a double bottom and had extended past what I thought was a 2 legged measured move.  Bounced up for a scalp.

4.  Thought it was the 2nd leg of a 2 legged move up.  It was but I got in at the top rather than at the bottom.

5.  It was only a 1st entry off the EMA.  Should have waited until the 2nd but didn't want to miss the 2nd leg if there was to be one.

6.  2nd entry short.  I at least got a scalp but I thought it was the beginning of a two legged move down.

7.  2nd entry long and 2 legged move close to the EMA.  Price also had just completed a 2 legged measured move down.

8.  2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move.  I had my 2nd contract where I thought the top of the end of the 2nd leg of the measured move was but it was actually about 2 points higher b/c I had somehow dragged it down to low.

9.  2nd entry long after what I thought was close enough the end to a 2 legged move down.  I jumped the gun and should have waited until price came closer to the end of the measured move which would have been right at the EMA.  I was still able to scalp but the EMA would have been the better entry since it would have been the bottom of the two legged measured move and there was a short trap.

10.  2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move off of the EMA.  My 2nd lot was 2-3 ticks under the top of the major 2 legged measured move.  I wonder if there would have been any signal to get in closer to the EMA b/c I could have gotten in a full point better?  Price did make a double bottom at the EMA but you can only see that after the fact.

11.  2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move down.  I had my 2nd lot 2 ticks lower at first near the edge of the end of the measured move but when price touched it and turned up I took the point profit.

12.  2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move up.  2nd entry if you are counting from the lows and was off the EMA.  2nd contract was 2 ticks below the end of the 2 legged measured move.
Missed Trades:

Missed Trades:

1.  2 legged move down to the trend line and the end of a 2 legged measured move down.  This trade was hard on my chart to get in.  Maybe I should have had my entry 2 ticks above the end of the measure move down since it was a great setup to go long?

2.  2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move up off of the trend line and the EMA.  I called and saw both of these trades but didn't take them.

3&4.  3 was a entry at the end of the 2 legged measured move off of the 45 EMA.  Mack didn't like this entry.  4 is a 2nd entry counting from the lows.  Mack liked this entry.  Notice how the 2 legged measured move up worked perfectly after a new low was created from a 2 legged measured move down.

5.  2nd entry short off the EMA and was the beginning of a 2 legged measured move down.  I had incorrectly labeled the measured move so I was taking trades the wrong way.  It is very obvious now.

6.  2nd entry long counting from the lows (there was also a trap on the lows).  This was also after a 2 legged measured move down so price was probably going to reverse and at least go for 2 legs up.

7.  He didn't really explain why to get long here.  I saw it and already had it labeled as a missed trade b/c I thought it was the 2nd leg of a 2 legged measured move.  I should also notice that this would create a higher high so that is a signal that price would probably continue higher.  Maybe that is the time to use a trailing stop then the measure move exit?