Sunday, February 17, 2013

2-15-2013



Ended up +3.75 points on the day.  Even though my losing trade faked me out I should have gotten out at around a -1.25 loss once I saw it did a long trap and reversed lower.  I also didn't take a trade at the end of the day which I called when trading that would have been another 3+ points at the minimum!  Even in Sim my emotions go crazy and I talked myself out of the trade even though the trade setup beautifully and met the price action requirements to take the short.  I think in a year from now if I come back and replay today then I would get 11+ points easy only trading 2 contracts. 

 Always watch for trading range areas b/c when price breaks through a range it usually goes the same distance as the previous range.

Trade 1:  2nd pullback off of EMA and it looked like price had overshot the trendline.  I expected price to go up and provide at least a one point scalp. 

Trade 2:  I thought price was creating a new flatter trend since I didn't expect the initial trend to hold b/c it was too vertical.  Price made a 2nd pullback long.  I expected price to test the previous highs or to go higher for the new trendline I anticipated.  Once I saw the long-trap happen I should have put my stop one tick under the swing low.  I shouldn't have taken the trade b/c I should have waited for the pivot to develop to see if price was really in a new channel and should have been looking for a short rather than a long.

Trade 3:  2nd pullback short to a channel where price was actually in a trading range.  I'm happy with how I exited but now I've learned about the trading range and how to calculate a move when price breaks out of a range.  I left 2 points on the table since I was going by a 2-legged measured move and not the trading range breakout measured move.  Overall I am very pleased with this trade from where I am in my trading knowledge.

Trade 4:  If I had looked to the left of the chart I would have seen that price was getting close to the lows of the day which would have confirmed this trade even more.  I perceived that price was due to at least go back up to the EMA for at least a scalp and possibly could go as high to the top of the trendline.  I figured that price had overshot the trendline and was due for a pullback.  I entered on a 2nd pullback long and exited my second contract around the top of the trendline.  This is another trade I am very pleased with in how I entered and exited the trade.  Not just b/c I maximized the profit but b/c I had a plan and stuck with it for my exit. 

Missed Trades
1.  At 3:49 in the morning I missed a 2nd entry pullback long coming off of a double bottom after a run down where price could at least rebound and test the EMA.  More than likely I would not have been up at this time to trade but it is something I would have taken if I had been up trading then. 

2.  At 9:46 I totally missed this trade and only put it there b/c Mack identified it and it fit a trade I would have taken.  It was a 2nd entry long off of the trendline and off of the lows of a trading range.  I was still wondering about the losing trade I had just taken so I was not ready to identify this trade like I should have.

3.  At 1:04 I missed a trade.  This is the trade I talked myself out of, even in Sim.  I was reasoning that it would have been Friday afternoon and if I was live I would lock up my profit and call it a day.  Not wanting to risk a losing day I didn't take the trade.  This was a 2nd entry short off of the top of the trendline.  I even called it when going through sim. 

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