Today there were lines drawn all over the place. The main thing I recognized early was that price was making a slow and grinding move up which meant it did not have much strength right before the market opened. I was fortunate my only long trade of the day hit my first profit target and that based upon how it was channeling in the channel I got out with a little bit of a profit on the 2nd contract. Price was coming back and taking out all break even stops and was grinding slowly upwards so I didn't feel that there was much of a chance for a runner.After I drew my 3rd trend line before the first 30 minutes of live trading was done I realized there had to be a bigger channel which I found. This saved me from taking 1 -2 longs at the top of the channel which would have been losers. I would have taken at least one long trade after that strong move up out of congestion if I had not made the decision to trade off the channel before price reached up there and only take shorts. Price didn't make it all the way to the lower channel today but it was the basis for me only taking short trades today. I got in 2 of my new trades I am adding which are the failed 2nd entry short/longs. I still need to clarify when to exactly get in. There may not be a solid answer and you might just have to get in after you see the 2nd entry failing going against the trend. The one trade I am glad I didn't take was the short near the end of the day. Where there were 6 overlapping bars. I remembered Mack saying that type of formation is not a good setup so avoid those trades.
I am looking for a book/course/videos that show you how to gauge the market direction based on the previous days activity and the pre-market hours. I think this will help me greatly b/c I have a very hard time at the beginning of the day deciphering which way the market is moving and that is when I take the majority of my losing trades. Vanilla showed me some stuff I will take a look at to see if that has this sort of information.
Trade 1: 2nd entry long with a pullback to the EMA and trend line. Was fortunate to get one more push up before the market went down for good. Notice how the market was grinding slowly up with no strength. I took the 2nd contract out early b/c price was always coming back and touching the lower trend line so due to all those factors I didn't think there was a very good chance to have a runner.
Trade 2: 2nd entry short off the EMA. Price was too far away from the uptrend channel to think that it was just a pullback before resuming its upwards trend. I figured that price would probably go down to test the previous low and I had my 2nd contract 2 ticks above that but it took out my BE stop first.
Trade 3: 2nd entry short off the EMA. Beautiful setup and perfect measured move down. I left about 1.5 points on the table but I am very happy b/c I got out using the measured move down. This is where I drew the larger trend line in brown b/c I had drawn 3 previous trend lines and the market had not been open 30 minutes. I used this to remind myself to only take shorts unless the market took out the high at 1507.
Trade 4: 2nd entry short. Price had broken out of the channel but I though there was still a good chance it was just a slight move higher before turning back down. At the time I didn't see that the move had made a higher high than the high at 9:00. I think that was a sign that this was going higher. If this swing's price had just made a double top compared to the swing at 9:00 or a lower low then this would have been a good trade to take. ALWAYS NOTICE IF THE SWINGS ARE MAKING HIGHER HIGHS, HIGHER LOWS, LOWER HIGHS OR LOWER LOWS. Keep an eye out for these things b/c this is what will make you super successful
Trade 5: I should have waited for the 2nd entry short which would have happened 3 bars later. I just took this trade b/c price was hitting the top part of the channel and I got scared that I would miss a good short. This is not a trade I am taking right now. It has to be at least a 2nd entry short, not a 1st entry. It worked out b/c the channel was correct but do not take these 1st entries right now. Mack can but you can't due to your lack of experience.
Trade 6: Failed 2nd entry long. Great job recognizing this trade. Price was in a downtrend and was making lower highs along the upper trend channel. Maybe could have gotten in a tick earlier.Price was hitting off of the upper trend line and the swing high made a lower high than the previous swing high. I left about 2 points on the table waiting to move my stop down. I probably should have moved my 2nd exit to all the congestion at 1500 since the bulls were fighting that area. I was greedy and was looking for price to run all the way to around 1498.
Trade 7: 2nd entry short off of the upper trend channel line. Beautiful hit off of the newly drawn upper trend channel line. Excellent exit using the measured move and right around the lows of the day at that time. Excellent entry and exit. Very nice trade.
Trade 8: Failed 2nd entry long. Another trade I am proud of. These failed 2nd entries seem to produce runners almost every time. There must be a lot of trapped people on the other side. Exited two ticks above the bottom of the lower trend line. Another excellent trade.
Missed Trades:
1. 2nd entry short. I saw it and even though about taking it but it was too far away from the EMA for my liking.
2. 2nd entry short. This is a trade I am proud I did not take. There had been 6 overlapping bars and Mack preaches that is not a good setup so even though I really wanted to take the short I held off. The emotions of missing a winning trade were yelling at me hard to take the trade but fortunately I followed Mack's advice.
3. Failed 2nd entry short. Price had been going down all day so I was not looking at taking any longs. It was also close to the upper brown trend line and late in the day. It would have been a great trade but there were too many factors going against it that I am fine with not taking it even though it turned out to be a great trade. Very good job of recognizing while trading that it was a failed 2nd entry short but quickly going over the pros and cons and sticking with your plan to only take shorts today.
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